2025 in Review: Reset, Refocus, and Ready for the Road Ahead

The 2025 SCOPE Annual Report offers a clear reflection of an industry in transition. While overall shipments declined across nearly every major category—firearms, ammunition, and optics, the data tells a deeper story. It reveals not just softness in demand but also resilience, emerging stability, and the early signals of a market settling in. For manufacturers and distributors willing to study these shifts and adapt strategically, the groundwork is being laid for stronger performance in 2026.

Despite economic pressures and extended inventory cycles, companies that lean into operational efficiency, accurate forecasting, and better alignment across the supply chain will be best positioned for success in the months ahead. The insights from SCOPE provide a critical roadmap for how to get there.

Industry Overview: Lower Volumes, Higher Discipline

Total shipments for 2025 were down compared to 2024, with the steepest declines in ammunition and a more modest year-over-year contraction in optics. Firearms shipments fell in line with the overall trend, though certain segments showed signs of late-year stabilization. Inventory levels remain elevated across most product categories, a reflection of cautious downstream ordering and slower retail sell-through.

However, the data also shows that the pace of decline slowed as the year progressed. Q4 numbers, while still soft, narrowed the gap compared to earlier quarters. This suggests that many distributors and retailers may have right-sized their inventory positions and are now moving closer to equilibrium.

The macroeconomic environment continues to influence buying behavior. Inflation, interest rates, and consumer confidence all played a role in shaping channel demand. In this environment, businesses focused on efficient assortment planning and tighter operational controls outperformed those who maintained pandemic-era volume assumptions.

The industry's shift from aggressive growth to sustainable optimization marks a healthy evolution. While growth is always the goal, this period of recalibration offers valuable time to rebuild systems, reinforce partner relationships, and prepare for the next phase of expansion.

Firearms: Core Categories Hold, While Excess is Shedding

Firearms shipments saw a modest year-over-year decline in 2025, with the sharpest slowdowns in the first half of the year. Shipments improved slightly in Q3 and Q4 as seasonal categories like bolt-action rifles and field shotguns gained traction. Modern sporting rifles and tactical shotguns continued to underperform, in part due to already high inventory levels and changing consumer preferences.

Handguns remained the largest category by volume, with 9mm semi-automatics dominating shipments. Compact and subcompact models held their position as top performers, indicating continued interest in concealed carry and everyday use platforms.

One notable trend is the rise in Pistol Caliber Carbines (PCCs), which gained share throughout the year. Though still a smaller piece of the overall market, PCCs show consistent growth and are attracting interest from new and existing shooters alike.

Elevated weeks of supply across all major firearm types continue to place pressure on both manufacturing and distribution. As inventory moves slowly, businesses are re-evaluating production schedules, launch calendars, and SKU breadth.

For manufacturers, the focus should remain on optimizing around known performers. Doubling down on high-velocity models while temporarily pausing production of fringe SKUs will help avoid deeper inventory backlogs. Distributors can support this strategy by streamlining assortments and working with dealers to promote core products with proven demand.

Ammunition: The Steepest Decline, but Core Demand Remains

Ammunition shipments declined sharply in 2025, with total volume down significantly compared to both 2024 and the 3-year average. This contraction reflects the continued effects of overproduction during peak demand years, as well as cautious buying behavior among distributors and dealers.

Centerfire ammunition remains the dominant category, accounting for more than 70 percent of shipments. Within centerfire, 9mm and .223/5.56 continue to make up the lion’s share of volume. These calibers remain essential across personal defense, range shooting, and recreational use, and should remain central to inventory planning.

The data also shows that rimfire and shotshell categories declined in 2025, though not as steeply as centerfire. High inventory levels across the board suggest that many downstream partners are still working through existing stock before placing new orders.

For manufacturers, production discipline is more important than ever. The ability to ramp up or throttle back output in response to data-driven demand signals will be critical to restoring balance. Distributors can reinforce this discipline by working closely with manufacturing partners to avoid excess and improve sell-through visibility.

In the year ahead, promotions and bundling strategies may play a useful role in moving aging inventory, particularly for less common calibers. However, the long-term solution lies in aligning production to real-world demand patterns, not speculative surges.

Optics: Holding Steady with Emerging Bright Spots

While optics shipments were also down in 2025, the category showed more resilience than others. Rifle scopes and reflex sights remained the largest segments, though both experienced reduced volume compared to 2024.

Observation optics, including thermal devices and binoculars, stood out as a growth area. These products saw consistent demand throughout the year, especially among night hunters, law enforcement users, and long-range shooting enthusiasts. Thermal optics in particular gained share and have become a meaningful contributor to revenue in the optics category.

Inventory remains elevated in traditional optics categories, but observation optics appear better aligned with actual demand. For both manufacturers and distributors, this suggests a shift in where product and marketing resources should be allocated.

Looking ahead to 2026, thermal and observation optics represent a strong opportunity for continued investment. These are high-ticket, high-margin items that benefit from consumer education and in-field demonstration. Businesses that invest in training programs and content to support these products will likely gain share.

Meanwhile, reducing SKU complexity in traditional scope lines can help ease inventory pressure. Product portfolios should focus on models with clear use-case alignment, rather than chasing niche configurations with limited pull-through.

Strategic Shifts: Efficiency, Forecasting, and Collaboration

One of the most important takeaways from the 2025 SCOPE Report is the growing sophistication across the supply chain. Businesses are becoming more deliberate in their planning, more selective in their product focus, and more collaborative in how they use data to drive decisions.

This evolution is reflected in the increasing use of SCOPE data across the industry. Manufacturers and distributors alike are using shipment and inventory trends to refine production cycles, shape new product strategies, and guide field sales efforts.

The introduction of new reports within SCOPE 2.0—many developed directly from “Partner +” meeting feedback—has expanded the toolkit available to subscribers. These enhancements offer more targeted insights, deeper segmentation, and better alignment between retail sales (CLX) and distributor shipments (DLX). Combined with expanded product category tracking, these improvements offer new ways to make smarter, faster decisions.

Heading into 2026, the businesses that win will be those that treat data as an asset, not an afterthought. This means embedding reporting into weekly routines, sharing insights across teams, and using dashboards not just to review history but to forecast future demand.

It also means reinforcing upstream and downstream communication. The more connected the supply chain is—through shared insights, joint planning, and transparent metrics—the better each partner can perform.

Opportunities for 2026: Reinvestment and Smart Growth

As we move into 2026, the industry has a chance to shift from a defensive posture to one of smart reinvestment. The past year has clarified where the cracks were—overproduction, poor forecasting, and reactive ordering—and has pushed many companies to address them head-on.

With inventory levels slowly normalizing and category trends becoming clearer, now is the time to build stronger go-to-market plans. That starts with identifying high-potential products and aligning resources around them. Whether it’s top-selling firearms, dependable calibers, or fast-growing optics, the strategy should be depth over breadth.

At the same time, companies should be preparing for seasonal demand cycles. Q4 of 2025 showed that hunting and holiday sales still have influence, even in a slower market. Planning now for 2026 fall campaigns, dealer programs, and stocking windows will allow businesses to capitalize when that demand returns.

This is also the right moment to invest in infrastructure. Streamlining data flows, automating reporting, and cleaning up product feeds will yield long-term efficiencies. With new SCOPE reports, predictive analytics on the horizon, and broader product tracking capabilities, companies have more tools than ever to make well-informed decisions.

Finally, training and education remain an underused lever. Dealers are still a key part of the consumer journey, and they need support to sell technical or higher-end products effectively. Whether it's thermal optics or PCC platforms, success often comes down to how well the product story is told.

Final Thoughts: Innovation, Suppressors, and Readiness for 2026

2025 was a reset year for the shooting sports industry, but it also revealed where new energy is emerging. While overall shipments slowed and inventory levels remained high across many categories, there are clear signs that innovation is already reshaping the next phase of growth.

One of the most important developments in late 2025 was the elimination of the $200 federal tax stamp on suppressors. This policy change has not only removed a longstanding financial and bureaucratic barrier—it has accelerated consumer interest and opened the door to a broader, more mainstream suppressor market. As a result, more manufacturers are now investing in suppressor development and production, and demand is surging across both tactical and hunting segments.

Suppressors are no longer niche accessories. They are becoming a staple add-on for new firearm purchases and a meaningful contributor to overall sales volume. For forward-thinking manufacturers and distributors, this marks an ideal opportunity to lead rather than follow. Businesses that move quickly to develop suppressor-compatible platforms, streamline product education, and support dealer sales will gain a distinct advantage.

This surge is a reminder of how innovation drives growth, even in slower markets. Whether it's through product design, new materials, modularity, or category expansion, manufacturers that prioritize R&D and bring fresh value to the market will be the ones shaping the next industry cycle. Distributors that align their inventory and programs with these innovations will deepen relationships and increase velocity as demand returns.

The same is true across other emerging product areas. Observation optics, PCCs, and defensive platforms that blend utility and innovation continue to outperform expectations. These are not just short-term trends—they are signals of what today’s shooters are prioritizing: performance, practicality, and personalization.

Looking ahead to 2026, the most resilient businesses will be those that combine operational discipline with bold innovation. Clean data feeds, lean assortments, and clear forecasting will remain critical—but equally important will be the willingness to invest in what’s next.

Now is the time to identify growth categories like suppressors, build marketing and sales plans around them, and ensure they’re represented in forecasting models and dealer programs. At the same time, companies should continue to strengthen infrastructure, streamline operations, and deepen collaboration across the channel.

2025 was a year to recalibrate. 2026 will be a year to reengage—with smarter tools, more relevant products, and a renewed focus on what shooters want today and will demand tomorrow.