Navigating a Shifting Landscape: Q2 2025 SCOPE Report Summary

The SCOPE Q2 2025 Report offers a vital window into the current state of the shooting sports industry, where macroeconomic pressures are weighing on performance but also presenting unique opportunities for distributors and manufacturers. While shipments are down across firearms, ammunition, and optics, businesses that analyze this data strategically can gain a competitive edge.

Rather than reacting to the downturn, distributors and manufacturers should take this moment to refine their approach—improving inventory efficiency, streamlining data flows, strengthening supply chain relationships, and preparing for a return to growth.

Market Overview: Softness Driven by External Forces

Economic uncertainty remains the most significant factor shaping current market behavior. Tariffs on both raw materials and finished goods are disrupting pricing and procurement. Inflation is creeping upward. Consumer spending is tightening—not just at retail but through the entire distribution pipeline. With NICS checks down -3.4% from Q2 2024 and distributor shipments down -12.6%, it’s clear the ripple effects are being felt broadly.

Importantly, inventory levels are rising across the board, while rolling 13-week average shipments are declining. These trends suggest that both retailers and distributors are placing fewer replenishment orders and taking a cautious stance, prioritizing financial flexibility over inventory expansion.

Firearms: Fewer Shipments, Focused Demand

Firearm shipments through distribution were down significantly across nearly all segments in Q2 2025:

• Handguns: -9.2% YoY

• Rifles: -17.6% YoY

• Shotguns: -14.5% YoY

• MSRs: -16% YoY

Tactical shotgun shipments were hit hardest, down -25%, while field guns only declined -2%, showing some seasonal resilience. Bolt-action rifles outperformed the category, remaining flat due to hunting-related demand.

Meanwhile, inventory weeks-of-supply (WOS) is increasing across all firearm types, pointing to a slowing channel velocity.

Manufacturer & Distributor Actions:

• Refine Category Mix: Focus production and stocking on consistently moving categories like 9MM semi-automatic handguns and bolt-action rifles. Avoid tying up capital in underperforming SKUs or niche models with minimal movement.

• Optimize Inventory Across Tiers: With WOS increasing, manufacturers should work with distribution partners to assess on-hand inventory and slow or reallocate shipments where appropriate. Aim for balance, not saturation.

• Support Data Transparency: Collaborate with distributors using SCOPE DLX to share sell-through and inventory movement data. This will foster smarter production planning and reduce redundant pipeline stock.

Ammunition: Strategic Inventory Management Is Key

Ammunition remains the most challenged category in Q2, with shipments down -42% YoY and -47% compared to the 3-year average. This steep decline, combined with inventory build-up, requires disciplined forecasting and production agility from manufacturers.

Centerfire ammo maintains a dominant market share above 70%, but shipments are down -46%. The pistol-to-rifle ammo split is currently 55%–45%, slightly skewed from the ideal 50/50 due to high retail inventories of rifle calibers like .223 Rem and 5.56 NATO.

A small rebound in June 2025 shipments—possibly linked to international conflict—highlights how external events can trigger short-term demand spikes.

Manufacturer & Distributor Actions:

• Audit Stock Health: Work closely with channel partners to understand aged inventory levels. Push fresh, high-turn SKUs like 9MM and .223/5.56 while throttling back on slower-moving calibers.

• Leverage Contract Flexibility: Build flexibility into purchasing agreements so distributors can adjust orders based on downstream signals.

• Maintain Responsiveness: Use SCOPE DLX’s near-real-time data to anticipate and act on market movements, such as sudden demand for defense-related calibers.

Optics: Managing Excess, Finding Growth

Overall optics shipments declined -19% YoY in Q2 2025. Rifle scopes (-18%) and reflex sights (-14%) make up over 60% of total shipment dollars but are also seeing inventory build-ups, with WOS climbing to 20+ weeks in many cases.

On the brighter side, observation optics, particularly thermal and binoculars, saw a +5% YoY increase. These products continue to grow thanks to their utility in hunting, surveillance, and nighttime use—areas with steady and often passionate demand.

Manufacturer & Distributor Actions:

• Channel to Growth Segments: Manufacturers should explore deeper development in thermal and observation categories. Distributors should prioritize these lines in marketing and dealer outreach, where appropriate.

• Rationalize Scope SKUs: With high weeks of supply and soft shipments, it's time to streamline rifle scope assortments and slow production on fringe or overstocked models.

• Coordinate Promotions: Target slow-moving optics for incentive-based inventory relief (e.g., spiff programs, margin-enhancing bundles) to help move product and clean up channel inventory.

Strategic Planning in a Cautious Market

Distributors and manufacturers alike are exercising more discipline in their spending. Open-to-buy budgets are tightening, lead times are being closely scrutinized, and businesses are asking harder questions about which products deserve production and shelf space.

This caution, while driven by uncertainty, also provides an opportunity: it slows the pace just enough for organizations to evaluate long-term improvements.

Manufacturer & Distributor Actions:

• Invest in Clean Data Feeds: With NASGW SCOPE rolling out enhanced dashboards and predictive analysis tools, now is the time to modernize how you manage, share, and act on your data. Automated, standardized data improves everything from forecasting to customer service.

• Segment Customers More Effectively: Use SCOPE to identify which customer segments or regions are showing above-average performance—even in a slower market—and focus outreach, availability, and programs accordingly.

• Tighten Supply Chain Coordination: In today’s environment, just-in-time inventory strategies are vulnerable. Balance efficiency with resilience by deepening relationships with key logistics providers and building contingencies for top SKUs.

A Forward-Looking Perspective

While the first half of 2025 has been slow, this is not uncharted territory for the shooting sports industry. Historical cycles have shown that disciplined companies who use downturns to invest in efficiency, innovation, and stronger data pipelines are best positioned to lead when the market rebounds.

It’s also worth noting that certain fundamentals remain intact. Firearms ownership continues to grow in the U.S. The used market is active, showing consumer interest hasn’t disappeared—just shifted. And new technologies in optics and ammo continue to excite a core user base willing to spend when value is clear.

Manufacturer & Distributor Priorities for the 2nd Half of 2025 and Beyond:

1. Leverage Predictive Tools: SCOPE’s upcoming predictive analytics feature will allow distributors and manufacturers to better forecast demand and inventory needs across regions and product types.

2. Build Scalable Processes: Automate data collection and reporting so that internal teams can focus on strategic insights, not manual cleanup.

3. Create Flexible Demand Programs: Work with dealers to create scalable promotion and co-op programs that can quickly flex up or down depending on market response.

4. Monitor Tariff Impact Closely: Stay in tune with global trade policies, as upcoming tariff changes in August with the EU, Mexico, and Canada may trigger price changes or create urgency in the channel.

Final Thoughts

The Q2 2025 SCOPE Report doesn’t sugarcoat the market—it shows an industry in a cycle of contraction. But it also highlights the immense value of high-quality data and thoughtful strategy. Distributors and manufacturers who use this period to streamline operations, deepen relationships, and embrace data-driven decision-making will emerge more competitive than ever.

Amid slowing shipments and rising inventories, the businesses that thrive will be the ones who act—not react. Whether it's adjusting product focus, enhancing supply chain coordination, or investing in long-term digital infrastructure, the time to move is now.

Let the data guide your decisions, and let strategic discipline define your response. The future remains full of opportunity for those who are prepared to meet it.