The Q3 2025 SCOPE Report outlines an industry still working through a slower sales environment, with manufacturers and distributors adjusting to extended inventory cycles, changing buying behaviors, and an evolving macroeconomic landscape. Yet despite softness in shipments and retail pull-through, there are signs of stabilization beginning to take shape.
While shipments remain down compared to both last year and the broader 3-year average, the rate of decline is slowing. Inventory levels are still high, but product movement appears to be finding a new rhythm, especially in core categories. For businesses willing to dig into the data, adapt operations, and plan strategically, Q3 presents a valuable opportunity to reset for stronger performance in the year ahead.
Firearms shipments were once again down across nearly all major categories in Q3. Tactical shotguns posted some of the steepest year-over-year declines, while modern sporting rifles and lever-action rifles also saw pullback. Handguns—especially 9mm semi-automatics—remained the dominant category in unit volume, though overall demand in this space was still subdued.
The seasonal boost typically seen with bolt-action rifles heading into hunting season helped offset declines in other long gun segments. This kind of predictable seasonal behavior, even in a slow market, is a sign that certain cyclical patterns are returning, giving manufacturers and distributors firmer ground for planning.
Elevated weeks-of-supply metrics across nearly all firearm types point to a channel still heavy on inventory. Distributors and retailers alike continue to move cautiously, leaning into known high-turn products while minimizing new orders of slower-moving SKUs.
For manufacturers, this environment favors precision over volume. The data consistently shows that 9mm remains the most in-demand caliber, driving the bulk of handgun shipments. Prioritizing production around these core models helps minimize out-of-stocks at retail, while scaling back lesser-ranked models allows companies to maintain a broad assortment supported by more productive inventory levels. At the same time, longer-term planning should account for growing consumer interest in PCCs, which have shown steady momentum over the past several quarters.
Distributors can support this recalibration by refining stocking strategies and prioritizing assortment depth in core segments rather than breadth across low-turn SKUs. Collaboration between manufacturing and distribution partners will be essential to ensure inventory is positioned effectively, avoiding excess while meeting real demand.
Ammunition remains the most challenging category across the shooting sports supply chain. Shipments in Q3 were down significantly compared to both 2024 and the 3-year rolling average, with many distributors reporting slower movement across pistol, rifle, and specialty calibers. While the steepness of the decline may be easing, overall demand remains well below pandemic-era highs.
That said, the ammunition category shows some encouraging signs. Shipment curves appear to be flattening, hinting that the market may be finding a new floor. As with firearms, demand is concentrating around core calibers. Pistol ammunition, led by 9mm, continues to account for the majority of shipments, while rifle calibers like .223 Rem and 5.56 NATO also remain essential to the overall mix.
Inventory continues to be a major concern. Many distributors are carrying excess stock, particularly in rifle calibers that saw heavy production in previous years. In response, some manufacturers are scaling back output and adjusting forecasts to align better with current demand realities.
The key for both manufacturers and distributors will be to stay close to the data. Granular visibility into SKU-level performance allows businesses to dial in production planning and reduce exposure to slow movers. Where inventory is bloated, targeted promotions or bundling strategies may help move product without eroding overall margin.
Manufacturers can also use this moment to work with their distributor networks on improving category management and forecasting. By aligning on expected velocity, re-order thresholds, and seasonal shifts, the entire channel can become more agile and less vulnerable to extended overstock.
Optics shipments declined again in Q3, but not as sharply as ammunition or firearms. Reflex sights and rifle scopes remain the dominant products in terms of volume and revenue, but the real story lies in the observation optics segment. This category, which includes thermal devices and binoculars, posted notable year-over-year growth despite broader market softness.
Thermal optics, in particular, have been a standout performer, driven by growing interest in night hunting, predator management, and tactical applications. These products now account for a significant portion of observation optic revenue and appear to be relatively insulated from the broader economic pullback affecting other categories.
Meanwhile, traditional hunting scopes and red dots are feeling pressure as consumer demand levels out. High weeks of supply in many of these subcategories indicate that product is outpacing movement, suggesting that both manufacturers and distributors should exercise caution when planning inventory and new product launches.
Distributors would be wise to give greater shelf space and marketing energy to thermal and multi-purpose optics, particularly those that can be effectively positioned for both recreational and defensive use. For manufacturers, investment in thermal continues to be a smart move—particularly if paired with end-user education and retailer training that demystifies the category and builds confidence at the point of sale.
As budgets tighten, consumers are focusing more on products that offer tangible, real-world utility. Optics that serve multiple roles—whether in sport, home defense, or hunting—are likely to see stronger pull-through in the coming quarters.
Across all categories, one clear theme emerges: this is a time for operational discipline. With demand still soft and inventory high, distributors and manufacturers must be focused, selective, and intentional.
That means avoiding the temptation to discount deeply just to create movement. In many cases, margin preservation is better served by holding product back or repositioning it through targeted dealer programs than through across-the-board price cuts. In this climate, every margin dollar counts.
It also means leveraging data more effectively. SCOPE's combination of distributor-level (DLX) and retail-level (CLX) data gives businesses a full picture of both shipment and sell-through activity. Using these insights to plan production, adjust open-to-buy targets, and align with customer buying cycles will separate well-run operations from those relying on guesswork.
Communication up and down the channel is equally important. Many distributors are still sitting on product ordered 6–12 months ago under very different demand assumptions. Manufacturers should not assume that new orders are imminent just because a quarter has passed. Proactive outreach and inventory coordination will help both sides avoid misalignment and excess.
There’s also a cultural shift taking place. The industry is moving from a reactive posture—one shaped by unpredictable spikes in demand—to a more deliberate, measured approach. Businesses that embrace this shift, refining processes and investing in better forecasting, will be well-positioned when growth returns.
Although 2025 has been a challenging year, it’s also offered important lessons. The current environment rewards businesses that are agile, lean, and informed. It punishes overreach, inefficiency, and assumptions.
Looking ahead, there are reasons for optimism. Many core categories are showing signs of stabilization. Seasonal demand around hunting and year-end holidays is still present, even if reduced. Consumer interest in shooting sports remains strong—what’s changed is how they’re spending.
Manufacturers and distributors can prepare for 2026 by doing the following:
This is also an ideal time to enhance infrastructure. Many companies are using this slower period to automate reporting, clean up data feeds, and adopt new analytics tools—steps that may not show immediate return but will pay off when volumes pick up again.
The rollout of expanded product category coverage within SCOPE, along with new reports introduced in SCOPE 2.0—including those inspired by Partner Plus feedback—offers additional firepower for businesses looking to get ahead. Those who embrace data-led decision-making today will be faster and more resilient tomorrow.
Q3 2025 confirmed what many in the industry already sensed: we are in the midst of a broad but manageable slowdown. It’s not a collapse, and it’s not forever. It’s a recalibration, and one that offers as many opportunities as it does challenges for businesses willing to adapt.
Manufacturers and distributors that stay focused on what’s working, stay disciplined with inventory and forecasting, and plan ahead using credible data will exit this cycle stronger and more competitive than they entered it.
The fundamentals of the shooting sports industry remain intact. Consumer interest is still there. New product innovation continues. And with the right strategies, businesses can position themselves not just to survive this moment—but to lead when the next wave of growth begins.