The first quarter of 2025 paints a picture of an industry working through a challenging—but not unexpected—correction phase. After several years of elevated demand driven by pandemic-era dynamics and geopolitical volatility, the market is continuing to normalize. Compared to the same period last year, most major categories—including firearms, ammunition, and optics—saw notable declines. However, it’s important to keep perspective: Q1 2025 performance still outpaces 2019 levels, which many in the industry recognize as the last “true baseline” before the disruptions of 2020 and beyond.
While the current year-over-year comparisons can feel discouraging on the surface—firearms shipments are down 7.5%, ammunition down 39%, and optics down 11%—much of that contrast is against artificially inflated benchmarks. Q1 2024, for example, benefited from a temporary surge in demand tied to the Israeli-Hamas conflict, causing an outsized spike in retail and distributor activity.
Now, in Q1 2025, the shooting sports industry finds itself in a more sustainable—but more cautious—market. Rising inflation, tightening discretionary income, and emerging international trade tensions are putting pressure on consumer behavior. Retail traffic is softer, and inventory movement is slower across many categories.
Yet within this environment lies a vital truth: we are still ahead of where we were five years ago. This market isn’t collapsing—it’s recalibrating. Businesses that understand the current consumer mindset, optimize inventory practices, and focus on regional and product-level insights will be best positioned to succeed through the rest of 2025 and beyond.
Overall firearm shipments are down -7.5% YoY.
NICS checks, a proxy for purchase intent, are down -4.2% and have trended below the YOY mark for 10 of the last 15 months.
Retail dealers are ordering less as consumer activity softens.
Segment Breakdown:
Handguns: Down only -2%, with 84–86% of shipments in the semi-automatic category, primarily 9mm. Steady improvement from Fall 2024 shows this segment remains resilient.
Rifles: Down -11%, led by declines in Modern Sporting Rifles (MSRs) at -25%. Bolt-action rifles have held best, supported by seasonal hunting interest.
Shotguns: Total shotgun shipments are down -11%, with tactical models falling -21%, while field models are nearly flat at -4%.
Takeaway: The handgun category is relatively stable and presents a buffer against sharper declines in long guns. MSRs and tactical shotguns are seeing the steepest pullbacks.
Total ammunition shipments are down -39% YoY, with Centerfire holding a 70%+ share but falling -41% from Q1 2024 levels.
Key calibers like 9mm and .223 Rem/5.56 NATO still dominate, making up over 50% of Centerfire shipments.
Inventory levels are building, while shipment volumes follow a steady downward slope.
Takeaway: The post-surge inventory glut is suppressing new orders. Retailers should monitor assortment quality to avoid overstocking low-velocity SKUs.
Optics shipments are down -11% overall, after a strong Fall 2024.
Rifle scopes saw the steepest decline at -24%, with over 20 weeks of supply on hand.
Reflex sights held steady YoY and are one of the more stable subcategories.
Observation optics like binoculars and thermal scopes showed growth in some months, but that momentum is uneven.
Takeaway: Inventories are high across most optics categories. Retailers and distributors should emphasize trend-based replenishment and avoid speculative overstocking.
Economic instability, including a growing trade war and inflationary pressures, are driving consumer conservatism. Tariffs are raising concerns across industries, including automotive and manufacturing, which indirectly affect shooting sports through discretionary spending reductions.
Consumers are becoming more selective, reducing non-essential purchases like sporting firearms, accessories, and bulk ammunition.
Reduced retail foot traffic is translating into slower sell-through rates and less aggressive reordering from dealers. This creates a lag effect in the distribution channel.
Recommendation: Adopt lean inventory practices and demand-driven restocking based on 13-week shipping averages. Use SCOPE data to identify fast movers and avoid tying up capital in slow-turning SKUs.
Consistent decline across all regions, with the South and Midwest maintaining relatively higher volumes.
Pistol Caliber Carbines (PCCs) are gaining share in rifle categories.
Field Shotguns outperform tactical variants, showing continued utility in hunting markets.
All regions experienced YoY declines, with the South and West seeing the sharpest drops.
Rimfire shipments, particularly .22 LR, are resilient, accounting for nearly 20% of rifle caliber shipments.
Seasonal demand spikes from Fall 2024 have tapered off.
Rifle scopes and reflex sights account for 60% of optics shipment value.
Thermal and observation optics grew temporarily but may not sustain pace without continued innovation or promotional support.
Inventory performance and demand are showing regional variances. Businesses should:
Adjust product mixes based on local preferences (e.g., bolt-action rifles in hunting-heavy states).
Leverage SCOPE’s geographic shipment reports to refine distribution strategy.
Despite category declines, certain SKUs continue to dominate market share:
Glock models (G19, G43X) and Sig P365 lead the handgun category.
Ruger American Gen II dominates bolt-action rifle shipments.
Beretta A300 Ultima Patrol stands out among semi-auto shotguns.
CCI Blazer Brass and PMC 5.56 ammo continue as top sellers in ammo.
Action: Focus marketing and inventory on proven SKUs with strong sell-through performance. Reduce investment in fringe or unproven models.
The traditional seasonal curves are shifting. With the 13-week average shipping trend now a critical benchmark, businesses should:
Incorporate SCOPE’s rolling average tools into weekly inventory planning.
Match purchase cadence to regional sell-through trends, not historical bulk-buy patterns.
With consumer confidence wavering, price sensitivity is growing. Brands and retailers should:
Promote value through bundle pricing, loyalty rewards, and rebates.
Highlight practical applications (e.g., home defense, hunting) in marketing language.
High WOS levels signal bloated inventory in many categories, particularly:
Rifle scopes (20+ WOS)
Tactical shotguns
MSRs
Action: Use WOS analytics to:
Delay reorders in saturated categories.
Identify understocked, fast-moving SKUs for reallocation or promo focus.
The Q1 2025 SCOPE data underscores a transitional period for the shooting sports industry. While it may appear contractionary at first glance, this phase also signals a return to normalized demand—free from the distortions of geopolitical panic buying and pandemic-era consumption habits.
Key messages for leadership:
Stay agile. Use SCOPE to guide smart, measured decisions—especially as more countries enter tariff battles.
Monitor consumer sentiment. When discretionary income is tight, category messaging must emphasize necessity and utility.
Partner across the supply chain. Manufacturers, distributors, and retailers must coordinate efforts to avoid bottlenecks and overstocks.
Tom Hopper, NASGW’s Sr. Data Analyst, wisely states:
This cautionary note should inspire businesses to double down on clarity, data, and operational efficiency. The more granular and responsive your strategy, the more resilient your outcomes will be.